William Keegan| William Keegan

Recently, the following questions were asked: Today programme to cite chapter and verse on the subject of Brexit “opportunities” Michael Gove, the secretary of state for all seasons, was hopelessly out of his depth.

Gove, however, missed a trick. What he should have said, but as a signed-up Brexiter obviously could not, was that the only “opportunity” arising from Brexit was to conduct a scientific experiment to demonstrate that the whole idea was a mistake. It was a confidence trick that was played on the British public, most of whom now realize they have been fooled.

As business and industry struggle with the consequences of imposing sanctions on our ability to trade with our largest market, and citizens – known to economists as “consumers” – struggle with the higher import prices imposed by the devaluation resulting from Brexit, the polls are pronouncing people’s verdict on Brexit with a vengeance.

According to a recent YouGov survey, 56% believe we were wrong to leave Europe and 32% think we were right. Even 19% of people who admit to voting leave think they were wrong. The only age group containing a majority still in favour of Brexit is the over-65s – I have to say they are not among the over-65s I myself bump into, but there it is. 88% of people who voted Labour in 2019 believe that leaving was a bad decision. Please note, Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves

It is clear that Sunak/Hunt cabinet members are more educated than others and have received the message from CBI and other sources that we must join the single market for the benefit of our economy. But this is the love that dare not speak its name, even though it appears that attitudes towards immigration – free movement! – have changed since 2016, when the egregious Boris Johnson, himself of Turkish ancestry, fomented anti-immigrant feeling with nonsense about an imminent flood of Turkish immigrants.

Sunak has taken up the message from foreign observers that Britain is sinking quickly due to Brexit and chaos within the Conservative and Brexit parties. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), only Russia out of 20 top economies is doing worse than the UK. Yes, we were known as the “sick man of Europe” until we joined the European Union and – guess what – we have left the EU and have regained that dubious status.

The country’s membership of the EU was a huge success. Both Labour and Conservative governments fought for their rights and received what they wanted. Margaret Thatcher and her righthand negotiator Lord Cockfield played a blinder in the setting up of the single market, and John Major achieved wonders at Maastricht with the UK’s opt-out from the single currency. As for rightwing concerns about “ever closer” union, they were duly assuaged. The result of those influential leavers was a completely unnecessary Brexit that harmed the economy.

The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the cumulative impact of Brexit would be sufficient to reduce our potential GDP by 4% each year. As Michael Saunders, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, has said: “The need for tax rises [and] spending cuts wouldn’t be there if Brexit hadn’t reduced the economy’s potential output so much.” And the Financial Times Recently, it was reported that many asset managers Sunak and Hunt tried to calm after the TrussKwarteng fiasco were worried about the risks of excessive austerity.

It was a former Treasury permanent secretary, Lord Croham, who observed to the historian Lord Hennessy and me once: “What matters is not balancing the budget but balancing the economy.” Yet, with the recent budget and the chancellor’s “shock and horror” talk, we seem to be back to the era of sado-monetarism. We are far from balancing the economic system.

The economist Jim Ball used to say he was suspicious of the OBE – not the Order of the British Empire, but the people who give you One Big Explanation.

This government’s OBE for economic problems was first Covid and then Ukraine. I am not saying Brexit is the cause of all our problems but – my goodness! – it has magnified them. Prof Ball’s memory is respected and I would like to nominate Brexit to be the One Big Explanation of why this economy is doing so badly compared to the rest of G20.